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唐驳虎:全球疫情大反弹死亡100万!然而揭示了最终结局!
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唐驳虎:全球疫情大反弹死亡100万!然而揭示了最终结局!

2020年09月27日 19:36:33
来源:唐驳虎

文/凤凰新闻客户端荣誉主笔 唐驳虎

核心提示:

1、9月27日数据显示,全球累计新冠确诊病例已达3300万例,死亡100万例。 面对第二波疫情反弹,大部分欧洲国家没有出台控制人口流动或其他限制措施。 这些国家的基本共识是——无论如何不能回到第一波疫情时的“全面封锁”状态,否则将遭遇第二次疫情、经济双重危机。

2、欧洲国家不着急 最根本直接的原因是,第二波的疫情杀伤力大大降低,在新增确诊人数大幅反弹的同时,病亡人数却一直在下降。 经过半年,相当于10多轮病毒繁衍周期后,自然突变和现实筛选使得病毒的杀伤威力初步衰减。

3、人们不能像“接受”流感一样,“接受”与新冠共存。 按基本同等标准的确诊-死亡率来说,新冠仍然不低于1.5%,而流感只有0.15%。 目前,新冠病毒在隐蔽传播、尽量不引起人们注意这个“技能点”上拓展得很成功,但在发症后降低死亡率,不要引发人们恐慌这方面,“改造”得还远远不够。

4、从理论上,经过不断演化和自然筛选,病毒毒力是可以进一步降低的, 新冠的死亡率会继续降低。 但从现代医学、公共卫生和人道主义的角度,在21世纪依然需要“自然筛选”和大量死亡来完成新入侵病毒的减毒,无疑是巨大的耻辱和荒谬。欧洲各国包括世界各地的疫情还会无限期的持续下去,不可能在近期内消失。

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第二波疫情席卷的欧洲

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| 法国日新增数值(颜色曲线为近7日平均数,下同)

| 英国日新增数值

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| 美国新增数值

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为什么他们不着急

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| 一阶段确诊-病亡率(疫情爆发-4月底)

| 二阶段确诊-病亡率(4月底-6月底)

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冠状病毒的减毒历程

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现代视角的新冠疫情

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